Russia's Nuclear Threat To The EU and Ukraine

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year, nuclear rhetoric from Moscow has once again escalated, raising alarms across Europe.

Recent missile strikes and diplomatic maneuvers have fueled speculation about whether President Vladimir Putin might resort to nuclear weapons against Ukraine or even extend threats to EU nations.

While Russian officials and propagandists continue to invoke nuclear options to deter Western support for Kyiv, analysts largely view these as psychological tactics rather than imminent plans for use.

Classic Russia

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin and his allies have repeatedly brandished nuclear weapons as a tool of intimidation.

Early in the conflict, Putin placed Russia's nuclear forces on high alert, warning that any interference could lead to consequences "never seen in history."

This pattern has persisted, with threats often timed to coincide with Western military aid announcements or Ukrainian battlefield gains.

For instance, in September 2025, Russian state TV propagandists claimed Western leaders were pushing toward a "nuclear catastrophe" by supporting Ukraine, framing it as a global plot against Russia.

Similarly, in May 2025, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov dismissed ceasefires and criticized European leaders for "hysterically demanding" tougher U.S. actions against Russia.

These statements align with a broader strategy of "hybrid warfare," where Russia combines military actions with disinformation and threats to undermine European resolve.

Critics, including Ukrainian officials and Western experts, argue that Putin has "bluffed" on nuclear threats multiple times without follow-through.

An editor Peter Dickinson noted in January 2026, "Ukraine has repeatedly called Putin’s bluff and exposed his nuclear threats as empty."

Belgian Defence Minister Theo Francken echoed this in October 2025, stating that Putin knows a nuclear strike or attack on NATO would result in Moscow being "wiped off the map," and past red lines, like Ukraine using long-range missiles, have been crossed without escalation.

The Oreshnik Missile

The most alarming event in early 2026 has been Russia's use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on January 8, targeting western Ukraine near the Polish border.

This marked only the second deployment of the Oreshnik since the war began, and it carried conventional (non-explosive) kinetic submunitions, suggesting the primary goal was signaling rather than destruction.

The strike hit Lviv, about 40 miles from Poland, an EU and NATO member, prompting Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha to call it a "grave threat to the security on the European continent.”

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the attack as a "clear escalation" and a "warning to Europe and the US," especially amid ongoing peace talks backed by the U.S. Russian analysts, such as pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov, framed the Oreshnik as "a weapon of war against Europe," not just Ukraine, highlighting its speed (up to 8,000 miles per hour) and ability to evade defenses.

Putin himself has openly threatened Europe with such missiles, asking in a video statement, "Who will defend you?”.

This incident came days after Britain, France, and Germany pledged military support for Ukraine's postwar security, including troops in NATO border states.

Nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis argued that using an expensive system like the Oreshnik with dummy payloads prioritizes "political benefit" over military impact, aiming to manipulate perceptions of nuclear risk to restrain Western aid.

End of New START

Compounding these threats is the impending expiration of the New START treaty on February 5, 2026, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control agreement limiting strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 per side.

Putin suspended Russia's participation in 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine, but proposed a one-year extension of limits in September 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump, in a January 8, 2026 interview, dismissed the idea, stating, "If [the treaty] expires, it expires... We’ll just do a better agreement," potentially involving China.

Without New START, risks of an unconstrained arms race rise, especially with Russia's large tactical nuclear stockpile and emerging systems like the Poseidon torpedo outside treaty bounds.

Analysts warn that lapsed verification could lead to misunderstandings and worst-case planning.

Russian state media and officials have amplified threats. In June 2025, Kremlin announcements hinted at possible nuclear responses to NATO actions.

Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov claimed strikes on Ukraine or Poland could be justified.

However, some Russian voices, including establishment figures, caution against escalation, noting Russia's conventional weaknesses could force early nuclear recourse in a direct NATO conflict.



Ukraine and the EU

For Ukraine, these threats aim to freeze support and force concessions in peace negotiations. Putin has weaponized winter by targeting energy infrastructure, seeking to "freeze Ukraine into submission”.

Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk reported Russia "going all in" on power system destruction as of January 13, 2026.

For the EU, the proximity of strikes to borders underscores vulnerability. Belarus, as a Russian ally, could serve as a launchpad for threats, potentially turning it into a "buffer" or escalation point.

If Europe were to intercept Russian ships or escalate, analysts warn of retaliation risks, up to nuclear confrontation.

Yet, figures like Shaun Pinner argue Russia escalated by invading and threatening Europe weekly, urging no delay in response.

Trump's comments in January 2026 emphasize Europe taking primary responsibility for Ukraine's security, with the U.S. in a secondary role, potentially shifting the burden to EU nations. Bluff or Brink

As of January 15, 2026, there is no concrete evidence of an imminent Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine or the EU.

The Oreshnik incident and ongoing rhetoric appear designed to intimidate rather than execute. However, the expiration of New START and potential miscalculations heighten risks.

Western leaders must balance deterrence with diplomacy, recognizing that while Putin's threats have often proven hollow, the capability remains a sobering reality.

Sustained support for Ukraine, coupled with arms control efforts, could mitigate escalation, but the shadow of nuclear war lingers over Europe and the Ukraine.

The Societal News Team 16JAN2026