Most Americans Can’t Afford Beef

Beef prices have risen substantially since 2020, significantly outpacing general food inflation (approximately 25–30% over the period).

Ground beef climbed from $4.26 per pound in 2020 to $10.00 per pound in early 2026 a 134.7% increase.

Steak prices escalated from $8.72 per pound to $22.00 per pound, marking a 152.3% surge.

These trends show acceleration in 2025 - 2026, driven by historic cattle herd contractions and sustained demand.

The primary drivers remain supply-side constraints, intensified by environmental and economic factors. The U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in decades (around 94 million head total, with beef cows near 28 million), due to prolonged droughts, elevated feed costs, and forced herd liquidations.

Production declined 4% in 2025, with further reductions projected for 2026. Additional pressures include grain price volatility, inflation, interest rates, and meatpacker dynamics.

Demand, however, has stayed robust, supported by preferences for beef's taste, nutrition, and cultural role. Retail sales values have risen despite higher prices, creating a pronounced supply-demand imbalance that amplifies upward pressure.

With median household income largely stagnant and food expenditures claiming 10–12%+ of disposable income ($8,800–$10,000 annually for average households), these prices impose severe strain.

At 58 pounds per capita in 2026, annual beef expenditure per person at $10+ per pound (ground beef proxy) totals roughly $580+, equating to over $2,300+ for a family of four, or a substantial portion of the typical food budget.

When using mixed cuts toward $22+ per pound for steaks, costs escalate further.

Surveys indicate widespread behavioral shifts. Significant portions of consumers report reducing beef purchases, opting for cheaper proteins (e.g., chicken or pork), or eliminating red meat entirely.

Lower and middle-income households face disproportionate impacts, potentially exacerbating nutritional disparities as access to nutrient-dense beef diminishes.

Aggregate consumption remains relatively stable in volume but shows per capita declines from historical peaks, underscoring that price barriers are reshaping dietary patterns.

The surge in U.S. beef prices from 2020 to 2026 exemplified by ground beef reaching $10+ per pound and steaks $22+ per pound, arises from a confluence of historic supply shortages, environmental challenges, and persistent demand.

These high price levels have rendered red meat unaffordable for a broad segment of Americans, as evidenced by consumer adjustments and economic data.

Interventions such as feed subsidies, herd rebuilding incentives, or import facilitation may offer partial mitigation, though meaningful relief could take years.

Future research should address regional variations and long-term health/nutritional implications. Without resolution of supply constraints, the affordability divide is likely to persist, fundamentally altering American consumption of beef.

The Societal News Team 10JAN2026